One big driver of turnover is electoral defeat, accounting for two-thirds of the total turnover (retirement comprises the rest). Thanks to the kind folks at
the Pundits' Guide, I've been able to browse their
extremely thorough analysis on incumbency, which suggests it's higher than this casual observer may have thought. In other words, once an MP gets a seat they have a pretty good chance of keeping it, particularity if you're in the Conservative party.
Here are some
facts from their site:
- In the 13 elections between 1968 and 2008 about 78% of incumbent MPs were re-elected.
- The flip-side of this coin means it's pretty tough for someone challenging the seat to win. Over the same period, that happened only 7.7% of the time.
- While the odds of keeping your seat are pretty good, they're not as good as they'd be if you lived in the States. In the 19 elections that took place between 1968 and 2009, the re-election rates for incumbent members of Congress was over 94%.
In both Canada and in the U.S., your party affiliation affects these numbers. Up here, for the seven elections between 1988 and 2008, the
incumbancy rates were:
- 96.7% for the Reform/Canadian Alliance
- 96.2% for the Conservatives (CPC)
- 88% for the Bloc
- 84.4% for the Liberals
- 67.8% for the NDP
- 46.7% for the Progressive Conservatives
Just the facts ma'am. Anyone have any thoughts on why?
Labels: Alice Funke, Bill Stanbury, featured, MPs, political leadership, Pundits' Guide